In 2025, there are an estimated 2.28 billion COPD exacerbations worldwide with a cumulative global health care cost of $3.89 trillion. By 2050, the number of exacerbations is expected to rise to 15.6 billion at a cumulative global cost of $24.35 trillion.
That’s according to a study, “Forecasting the Global Economic and Health Burden of COPD from 2025 Through 2050,” published in CHEST.
To project the economic and health burdens of COPD through 2050, the researchers developed an open cohort Markov model that stratified the costs by age, sex and smoking status. The researchers wrote that distributions of COPD severity grades were based on global trends in smoking status, household air pollution, particulate matter and ozone. This data was then used to project direct costs, indirect costs and the number of COPD exacerbations.
The researchers used a simulation model that calculated projections every five years through 2050. Direct annual medical costs from COPD are projected to rise to $862.42 billion in 2050, up from an annual projected cost of $778.66 billion in 2025 — an increase of 10.8%.
The annual costs for male patients are projected to rise from $490.48 billion in 2025 to $560.86 billion in 2050. For female patients, the costs are expected to rise from $288.18 billion in 2025 to $301.56 billion by 2050.
The East Asia and Pacific regions, including India, China and Australia, are projected to see the biggest increase in annual burden, rising 27% by 2050. North America, meanwhile, is projected to have a 10% decrease in annual COPD burden during that same time frame.
The indirect annual costs of COPD, including missed days at work and lost productivity, amount to $500 billion in 2025. That number is expected to rise by 4.8% to $524.86 billion in 2050.
The researchers wrote that their projections suggest that by 2050, “the impact of COPD will become unsustainable under current health care and financial conditions. This underscores the need for effective interventions and policy changes.”
Some of the key strategies they suggested, especially in low- and middle-income countries, include:
- Reducing smoking through stronger tobacco control
- Improving air quality by addressing pollution
- Expanding health care access with better infrastructure and affordable treatments
“If these measures are implemented, they could reduce the burden of COPD and improve outcomes, helping to prevent the expected rise in COPD-related health and economic impact by 2050,” the study authors wrote.
